Fall 2002
Contents

Message From the Executive Director:
* Beyond trees in parking lots

Articles:
* The 2000 Census numbers are in:
What they tell us about the Upstate
* Upstate Forever should be embraced
* Conference on the "Z Word"
is a great success!
* Restoring and protecting trout waters
in the Upstate
* Dorman HS: A casualty of "The Growth Beast"

Upstate Forever News:
* Field trips
* Volunteers
* Staff and Board

The 2000 Census Numbers are In:
What They Tell Us About the Upstate

by Diane Eldridge

The 2000 Census numbers are finally in, and they provide some eye-opening insights into the people and resources of the Upstate and the rates and patterns of development. Six major categories are discussed below.

Population
     The Upstate’s population is booming! From 1990 to 2000, the region’s population increased by 144,000, which translates into a rate of 39 people per day. As the above table shows, this is a trend that started around 1950 when the region’s population growth began a steady exponential climb from 535,247 to 1,045,686 in 2000, nearly doubling in 50 years.
     Four of the six Upstate counties currently rank among the state’s top 15 in total population (Greenville No. 1; Spartanburg No. 4; Anderson No. 7; Pickens No. 13).
     What isn’t so obvious when looking at these totals is the rate of growth or the percentage by which population increased in the last decade. While the Upstate’s population as a whole grew by 15.98 per cent (slightly higher than the state average of 15.10 per cent), Laurens County’s rate of growth was the highest among the six Upstate counties at 19.75 per cent, while both Greenville and Pickens Counties experienced growth rates of over 18 per cent.
     By using some generally accepted standards, we can better understand the impact of these population numbers. During the last 10 years, approximately 53,000 (1) new households have been established in the Upstate, consuming over 26,000 acres of land.(2) We have also added more than 2.85 million square feet of shopping space (3) requiring 14,250 new parking spaces.(4) And that’s just retail! The 95,000 (5) cars that came with our new residents are traveling more than 1.1 billion vehicle miles (6) on our roads and highways every year. Our schools have made room for at least 13,000 (7) new students, often by adding portable buildings or by overcrowding classrooms.
     It is astonishing to realize that all of these dramatic changes in the Upstate took place in a period of only 10 years!

Education and Compensation Levels
     Among the state’s 46 counties, four of the top 15 with the highest percentage of college graduates are in the Upstate (Greenville, Oconee, Pickens, Spartanburg). It is not surprising, therefore, that five of the 15 counties with the highest median household income also are located in the Upstate region (Anderson, Greenville, Oconee, Pickens, Spartanburg).

Housing Values
     The housing stock in the Upstate region ranks among the state’s most expensive and is increasing in value at rates faster than those in most other counties. While the state’s median home value was $94,900 in 2000, three Upstate counties exceeded that threshold (Greenville, Oconee, and Pickens), and five were ranked among the state’s top 15. In addition, of the 15 South Carolina counties with the fastest appreciation rates, five are in the Upstate.
     Also noteworthy is that some of the most expensive homes are in counties with little or no land use regulations. For example, Oconee County has no zoning (except for three cities) and very few development standards. Nevertheless, the county’s median house value of $97,500 and its appreciation rate of 33.4 per cent (1990-2000) are among the highest in the state.

Manufactured Housing
     While the Upstate has its share of high-priced homes, it also has a significant and increasing number of manufactured homes. Anderson, Laurens, Oconee, and Pickens Counties either meet or exceed the state’s average percentage of total housing stock comprised of manufactured homes. In contrast, Greenville and Spartanburg Counties have the third and sixth lowest percentages in the state, respectively.
     Laurens County ranked ninth in the state in the percentage of growth in manufactured housing stock between 1990 and 2000. With an increase of 89.4 per cent, Laurens was the only Upstate county that exceeded the state’s average of 50.7 per cent (Anderson, 44.1; Greenville, 40.6; Oconee, 38.5; Pickens, 48.4; Spartanburg, 47.8).

The Changing Face of the Upstate
     Newcomers from out-of-state account for a significant portion of the Upstate’s population growth. While coastal counties attracted larger numbers than other parts of the state (Beaufort and Horry Counties ranked first and second, respectively), three Upstate counties ranked among the state’s top 15 in the percentage of residents who did not live in South Carolina in 1995.

Commuting Time
     Strong economic growth means jobs, and when jobs are nearby, our residents don’t have to spend as much time commuting to work. All six of the Upstate counties fell below the state’s average travel time to work (24.3 minutes), with Pickens being the highest among the six (24 minutes) and Greenville the lowest (21.6). Nevertheless, South Carolinians are spending an average of 18.5 per cent more time commuting than they did in 1990, a fact undoubtedly attributable to the sprawling patterns of residential development that separate workers from their jobs.

What Do The Numbers Tell Us?
     We can draw some general conclusions from the numbers and graphs discussed above:

• Assuming that the Upstate’s population increases at the same rate during the next two decades as it has during the past two, by the year 2020, there will be approximately 314,000 more people living in our region, 116,000 (8) more homes, 209,000 (9) more cars, and 29,000 (10) more students. This phenomenal growth, if not managed properly, will have profoundly adverse impacts on our region and quality of life.
• Counties with a more highly educated workforce attract the most lucrative jobs and have the most expensive housing stock.
• The lack of land use regulations does not necessarily assure the affordability of housing (e.g., Oconee County).
• Counties with the fewest land use regulations have the most manufactured housing (e.g. Laurens County).
• Commuting times increase with sprawling growth patterns.
We also can identify some of the solutions to the
problems caused by rapid growth and development:
• We must make a serious commitment to planning for the dramatic growth that is coming.
• We must recognize that local government has a critically important role to play in managing growth, protecting property values, and enhancing our quality of life through the enactment of zoning ordinances, development standards and similar measures.
• We must provide significant local funding to protect
open space.
• We must be prudent about where infrastructure (roads, water and sewer) and schools are built.
• We must make a commitment to affordable housing.
• We must encourage and promote mixed-use developments, which reduce commuting times and dependence on cars.
     The bottom line is that we live in an extremely attractive and economically healthy part of the country. This is a wonderful place! The great challenge facing the Upstate is to keep it that way and to avoid the mistakes that regions like Atlanta have made. But with courage, leadership and vision, we can do it!

1 Based on an average of 2.7 persons per household, as suggested by Kaiser et al. in Urban Land Use Planning, 1995.
2 Based on an average of 2.0 dwelling units per acre.
3 Assumes 19.79 square feet of retail per capita as suggested by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
4 Assumes 5 spaces per 1,000 square feet of retail.
5 Based on 1.8 vehicles per household, as stated in the U.S. Department of Energy’s 1994 Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey, South Atlantic Division.
6 Ibid, 22,400 Vehicle Miles Traveled per household.
7 Greenville County School District uses a standard of 40 students per 100 households, while the national standard is 25 students per 100 households. We used the more conservative national standard.
8 See footnote 1.
9 See footnote 5.
10 See footnote 7.