Results of Strom Thurmond Institute Study

Study Predicts Amount of Developed Land In Upstate Will Triple By 2030

Result Can Be Avoided Through More Efficient Growth

     The amount of developed land in the Upstate will triple by the year 2030 if current practices and policies continue, according to a new study released by the Strom Thurmond Institute (STI) at Clemson University.

Researchers first determined actual changes in developed land and population in eight Upstate counties (Greenville, Spartanburg, Anderson, Pickens, Laurens, Newberry, Abbeville and Greenwood) from 1990 to 2000. Then, using a computerized growth model and government population growth forecasts, and after consulting with local planners in each county, they predicted the extent of development in the region if these development patterns remain unchanged.  

A key factor in the model is the ratio of the expansion of developed land to the increase in population. Based on actual changes from 1990 to 2000, the model conservatively used a ratio of 5 to 1; that is, for every 10 percent increase in population growth, developed land is predicted to increase by 50 percent.

The 1990 and 2000 maps show the actual extent of development (in red) in those years...

The study found that in 2000, the extent of developed land in the Upstate was 576,000 acres. The study forecasts that if current trends continue, the developed portion of the Upstate will increase to over 1.5 million acres by 2030 – a staggering rate of 86 acres per day. To put that in perspective, Haywood Mall in Greenville is about 82 acres in size.

The 2010, 2020 and 2030 maps show what the Upstate will look like if current development trends remain unchanged.

“This study clearly shows the direction the Upstate is heading,” said Dr. Jeff Allen, the project leader at STI. “But this result is not inevitable. The region can avoid this fate by reducing the ratio and developing less land relative to population growth.”

Different Ratios, Different Futures

The study also assessed what the result would be if the overall amount of population growth were to remain the same, but the resulting development occurred in a more efficient manner. These scenarios are expressed in terms of lower development to population growth ratios, as shown in the table, below (see also maps below).

A related study conducted by Clemson’s Center for Community Growth and Change (CCGC) in 2005 found that the development to population growth ratio for the Upstate for the 50-year period from 1940 to 1990 was only 0.5; that is, for every 10 percent increase in population growth, developed land increased by only 5 percent. Dr. Barry Nocks, who directed the CCGC study, said, “It is stunning that in the 1990s the ratio increased tenfold – from 0.5 to 5. There are a lot or reasons for this – the building and widening of roads, more sprawling layouts for new schools and big box stores, the abandonment of older shopping areas, and the development of more distant subdivisions with ever-larger lots. The cumulative impact of all these activities on a region is quite dramatic, as the two studies show.”

These maps show what the Upstate will look like in 2030 under different ratios of population growth to rate of development...
Each scenario has the same number of people and the same amount of economic activity. The difference is in the amount of land consumed to accommodate the growth.
Look at the 5:1 map (current trends) and the 1:1 map. We truly have a choice. We can become a region like Atlanta (5:1) or a region that protects its quality of life, paves over much less land, and spends much less money in providing services and infrastructure (1:1)

With each of these different ratios, only the extent of land development changes while the amount of population growth and economic development is identical. The difference between one scenario and the next is how efficiently we use land as our region grows. The different ratios allow us to see how the region can accommodate the same number of people and businesses without consuming so much land  – and thus generate all the economic benefits of growth at a fraction of the cost.

Dr. Allen said, “The way the Upstate has been growing is classic sprawl – mainly spread out, low-density development connected only by roads. It’s important to understand that this pattern of development has serious consequences both on the environment and on taxpayers. We didn’t quantify these impacts in this study but other studies have consistently shown that they are enormous. In sprawling regions, there is more polluted runoff, more air pollution from more driving, and more loss of valuable lands and resources. What’s more, it is a lot more expensive to provide services, such as schools, roads, water and sewer and police and fire protection, to a widely dispersed population.”

The STI study is a huge wake-up call for the Upstate to finally get serious about managing growth. There are many effective policies and programs that should be considered, such as concentrating infrastructure and services in areas where growth is desired, transfer of development rights programs, land use controls, affordable housing programs, revitalization of existing developments, infill developments, and increased funding for conservation. Cities and counties in the Upstate need to start implementing these policies now. We don’t have much time before the study’s projections become reality.